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Mapboi — Request: What if the Gunpowder Plot Succeeded?

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Published: 2022-11-12 14:49:04 +0000 UTC; Views: 1934; Favourites: 12; Downloads: 4
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This scenario has evolved into more of a "what if the Catholics won the Thirty Years War?" scenario. Nevertheless, the basic premise is that James I and the English Parliament are destroyed in the Gunpowder Plot, and the Catholics succeed in installing Princess Elizabeth as their puppet and raise her as a Catholic. England therefore comes under Catholic rule once again.


Realistically, I think James I's assasination would not result in a Catholic takeover; most likely, young prince Henry Frederick would take the throne, and Protestantism would become even more radical and Puritan. Eventually, Charles I would probably still take the throne, and if he did so earlier than in our timeline we might see an English intervention in the Thirty Years' War (since James I wanted to ally with Spain but Charles I was hostile to them). That is a scenario I might do another time, but for now, let's focus on what a Catholic England would do on the world stage.


If the Catholics could gain control of England, they would not have trouble with Ireland; Scotland is another story, and this could result in either a) conquest of Scotland by the Catholics, or b) the legitimate Stuart claimant taking the throne in exile. Realistically, I don't think the Catholics would be so successful even in England, so for now let's assume Scotland becomes independent under a rival claimant, while England is ruled by Catholics.


James I pursued an alliance with Spain in our timeline, and even tried to intervene on their side against the Dutch; without opposition from parliament, and with a Catholic elite controlling the monarchy, this would almost certainly happen. England and Spain would join forces to destroy the Dutch Republic, resulting in the restoration of Spanish rule over the northern provinces. They would also cooperate against France, their traditional rival, and this could result in England reclaiming Calais; moreover, England and Spain would support the Fronde under the leadership of the Prince of Conde, and this would kill French absolutism in its cradle.


The destruction of the Dutch Republic, the humiliation of France, and England being firmly in the Catholic camp would all have major effects on the Thirty Years' War. Without the prospect of English or Dutch support, I doubt the German princes would all rally to the Palatinate's cause, and I doubt foreign powers would get involved. The Palatinate would go to Bavaria, and apart from this the status quo would prevail in the Holy Roman Empire. Moreover, without Swedish intervention Brandenburg would inherit all of Pomerania without difficulty. Without the Peace of Westphalia, the Holy Roman Empire would be a bit less decentralized, and the Hapsburg would maintain a more effective hegemony over Germany. Spain would also remain a major power for the time being, France would not rise to such prominence, and England would be Spain's junior partner in a Europe still dominated by Catholicism and the Hapsburg dynasty.

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