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ShahAbbas1571 — Warring State of Libya: January 2027

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Published: 2024-01-27 10:09:26 +0000 UTC; Views: 11521; Favourites: 114; Downloads: 16
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Description National Affairs

1 - Governorate Missive: Concerning the takeover of Warfalla Trail


January 12th, 2027

Governor of Mizdah

Mizdah, Mizdah Province

To the Esteemed and Honourable Qayid,

I received your letter demanding a comprehensive explanation regarding an incident following the Hassawna withdrawal from a commercial trail leading to Ash Shuwayrif. Thus, with proper testimonies and investigation, I compiled this missive to articulate the essential information and clarify any misconceptions concerning key events set in motion.

To summarize the incident, the highway connecting Qaryat and Ash Shuwayrif, colloquially known as the Warfalla Trail, was taken over a few hours after the Hassawna withdrew from the area. It was an endeavor masterminded by Hussein Al-Gaddaf Aswani, one of the commanding officers within the local militia; he organized a swift occupation with whatever resources he had and consolidated his grounds within the same circumstance.

After receiving news of his actions, we arrested him for waging an unauthorized military expedition and put him under tribunal; his men were contentious during the apprehension, but he persuaded them otherwise to avoid unnecessary escalation. Thus far, we have allocated enough information from investigations and testimonies to produce a conclusive summary, a procedure that amounts to 85 hours in total.

He detailed that over 250 men joined his cause, but his subordinates suggest otherwise; most of them describe their numbers as less than Hussain has claimed, and instead of being motivated by revolutionary zeal, they merely joined due to promised loot and rewards. Their equipment varies from men-to-men, ranging from automatic rifles to antiquated bolt actions. However, almost all of them come from a consistent origin: They've looted their weapons from the remnants of skirmishes between our men and the raiding Hassawna militias.

The tribunal also reveals his rather dubious motivation since he waged it under the pretense of our banner. Hussein justified it by asserting such a move would benefit the governorate; he secured the only reliable trail between the Green Army and the neighboring Warfalla tribe at the most opportunistic time. Ostensibly, the locals shared similar sentiments and even welcomed such an incident, especially the caravan merchants; they were frustrated by the excessive tolling the Hassawna imposed against them.

Regarding what right his actions represent the will of our struggle, he asserted, "If you people won't take such an opportunity, then I will."

We are finalizing the tribunal, and our judges will declare his sentence on 19th January. Until we receive further notice, we will continue the procedure accordingly.

Mustafa Al-Warfalli, Governor of Mizdah

2 - The Mediterranean: Magarha family withdrew from Confederation of the Tribes


Author: Julian Emmert

(January 07, 2027 - 10:37) -- One of the members of the Confederation of the Tribes, the Magarha family, has withdrawn from the union as both sides failed to resolve an internal dispute, later confirmed by its representatives on January 6th.

"Due to the mistreatment of our family from the Grand Council and the failure to fulfill the terms established by the Treaty of Masqan, we set our sights elsewhere and withdrew from the so-called Confederation," Magarha Representative Mahmoud Jibril Al-Megarha said.

In response, the Confederation formally condemned the family, rebuking the Magarha's statement of lacking proper representation as hypocritical, and unanimously declared sanctions on essential goods.

"The Grand Council has declared a verdict: we have decided to impose sanctions of water and foodstuff on the Magarha family, who had yet to keep their word on lifting their unfair tolling scheme against our caravans despite acknowledging and ratifying the established terms," Head Spokesperson Mustapha Al-Saadi said.

Acceded to the Confederation last year, many praised their entry as a diplomatic triumph for the Grand Council against the Free State of Sabha, whom Martin Geoff expressed interest in the Magarha until an incident concerning the death of their representative. However, their withdrawal leaves the tribal union in a precarious situation.

"The Grand Council should reconsider their grievances, at least enough for them to join back. If left unchecked, Martin Geoff could take advantage and bring the Magarha into Sabha's fold and even threaten the cohesion of the Confederation," Defense Analyst Alan Herver commented.

3 - DIA Intelligence Report: Communique 48-01/12/2027 - Confirmed Iroquois Anti-Air Platform Sightings


[Exceprt from Communique 48-01/12/2027 - Confirmed Iroquois Anti-Air Platform Sightings, Section Abstract, Page 02.]

After contacting several operators and compiling photographic intelligence, we have confirmed the whereabouts of at least one of the lost Iroquois Anti-Air Platforms; both visual and testimonial descriptions match the specifications of the Moroccan package model. Location-wise, It's currently within Tuareg territory, west of the region's desert escarpment - the Mesak Settafet.

By what means the Tuareg State acquired the platform has yet to be determined; they demonstrate little political and economic capacity to procure the system, let alone operate it functionally. Directorate of Analysis provided a hypothesis that their raiders claimed the system from a caravan group heading towards Sabha territory but cautioned such notions due to their limited projection.

During a joint investigation with our Morrocan counterpart (General Directorate for Territorial Surveillance), we had difficulty assessing whether the disappearance was due to deliberate arms trade or mere negligence on the part of local security; one of our agents suggested the latter to her counterparts faced a fierce reprimand from Executive Director Abdelouafi Laftit, only to be personally rescinded by the king after being informed over the alleged conspirator.

Our counterpart - Adrian Hollis (CIA), does concur with the agent's explanation; he asserted that Morroco faced a similar incident when a local quartermaster stationed in Tichla, Western Sahara, sold 873 AK-103 from the armory to the Polisario Front, who then attempted cover his arms trafficking scheme by brandishing prop guns as replacements. However, we cautioned against such speculation due to the Iroquois being a strategic weapon system; it's unlikely such a security breach would occur due to negligence despite the Moroccan Army's complications with corruption.

We also determined the system stands useless to Tuareg forces; their lack of technical expertise and proper logistics would render the Iroquois a mere war trophy for their soldiers to parade over. However, we suggest commencing preventive measures; Sabha still expressed interest in reclaiming the Iroquois, and we confirmed that at least three émigrés are veterans of their respective air defense artillery brigades.

4 - Al-Rashidi's Journal: January 11th, 2027


Qasim had expanded our dominion once again, as his nature would allow it. Out of all the men who volunteered for the expedition, it was not the old guard who fought under Al-Baghdadi but aspirants such as him instead. His youthful stature didn't strike me as worthy of generalship, but it wasn't until his success with Al-Maruf that he proved far more capable than my initial glance would suggest.

His dedication to statecraft is also impressive enough for him to deliver entire ledgers and reports via couriers since his arrival at the White Haruj. While most of these are concerned with economic and demographic affairs, he also provided expeditionary accounts from his soldiers, one of which proved to be an intriguing and even haunting read.

One of his men described Waw An Namus - an oasis unscathed by the war; their founding was an impetus for the recent surge of settlements across the volcanic plain. Despite the harsh desert, they set themselves as a model community due to their flourishing crops, producing potatoes and watermelons; they yielded more than enough to trade surpluses with their neighbors and caravans. The locals revealed their ways: They recycled discarded bottles once trashed by tourists to become droplet contraptions for irrigation, allowing them to cultivate entire rows without wastefully drying their oasis.

The expedition concerning the northern fringes raised an eyebrow, however. The 2020 census under Haftar suggests there is a town there - Al-Fawakhir, but Qasim seemed unusually skeptical, sending a scouting party to explore the area. Instead of a bustling community, it was endless columns of white-schemed tents. "The settlement is void of life," their reports wrote, asserting that only the strays of jirds and camels frolic there. They searched for signs of raids or natural calamities, at least something to explain such serenity. However, when they barged to what appeared to be its gathering ground, from food to furniture, all were set in place as if the supposed people here hadn't left.

Regardless of the plethora of reports, what is certain is the nonexistent presence of the LNA throughout the deeper south. Despite their claims, Khalid Ibn Khammas only rules over Kurfa, and even then, the unruly Tebbou families are a thorn in their occupation. The rest are self-sustaining communities neglected by those who deemed themselves legitimate authorities, the exact lots who bent their knee for Haftar.

5 - Libyan National Army Intelligence Report: Skirmish between Mustafa Clique and Hussain Clique


Serial: 11-173

Date: 01/05/2027

Summary:

Mustafa Clique raided the western regions ruled by the Hussain Clique. The hinterlands surrounding Al Haniyah and Marawah encompassed the entire theatre of the skirmish, with most engagements either occurring at high elevations or on roads adjacent to the hills. 100+ military personnel were lost from both sides, while 150 civilians were either killed, maimed, or internally displaced.

Timeline:

10:34 AM: Westward of Marawah and Al Haniyah experienced rapid artillery barrages fired by the Mustafa Clique, inflicting seven casualties against local garrisons and eventual withdrawal due to overwhelming firepower.

11:41 AM: Raiding parties proceeded to encroach the surrounding hinterlands of the two towns, with reports of deliberate looting and extortion of local communities committed by Mustafa's men.

11:56 AM: Hussain Clique responded after a series of delays and miscommunications, amassing a force large enough to counteract the marauding parties with two detachments; total personnel ranges over 300-700 men backed by armored spearheads.

12:37 PM: Both belligerents made contact at a westward highway connecting Al Haniyah. The defending army inflicted nine casualties and pressured the raiders into withdrawal.

01:27 PM: Mustafa's force feigned a retreat from Marawah and inflicted 27 casualties against the arriving detachment; the armored vanguard leading the column fell into a sinkhole and caused traffic among its personnel.

03:22 PM: Commander of the raiding mission against Marawah was killed by a stray mortar fire; both sides tried to reclaim his cadaver, but the current whereabouts of its splintered remains are unknown. Subordinate officer immediately takes command.

05:03 PM: Mustafa Clique lost 41 personnel; Hussain's forces counterattacked the raiders distracted by excessive looting, claiming 17 prisoners during their hasty withdrawal.

06:07 PM: Skirmish across the region is over.

Addendum: Before the skirmish, signs of discontent grew from rank-and-file soldiers and lower-echelon officers against Mustafa's inner circle. Declining quality of life, depleting food rations, lack of payment, and supposed embellishment of their commanders' lifestyle led many to question their authority. Aside from distracting the soldiers through looting, half of their combatants killed in the raid were alleged conspirators. Form of dissent varies among factions within the clique; some demand a change of leadership, while others contemplate switching allegiance to the army or the Tahloob forces.

6 - Northern Front: Libyan National Army and Tobruk Clique to convene over territorial union


Author: Dimitry Vasily

(January 11, 2027 - 09:13) -- Since the 2024 Sidi Umar Deal, which established the guaranteed freedom of movement for both parties' trade caravans, the relations between the Libyan National Army and the Tobruk Clique slowly thawed from a convenient partnership to a relatively sincere pseudo-allianceship. From collaborative humanitarian works to joint caravan escorts, it eventually culminated in military pursuits, evident by LNA support of local garrisons during the Hussain-led skirmish over Al-Ghazlah.

However, It wasn't until January 8th that both of their respective leaders - Khalid Ibn Khammas (LNA) and Mohammed Farkash (Tobruk Clique), announced a diplomatic convene ready to be set in Tobruk on January 11th. The negotiation will concern political and military affairs and the extent of such a union, with a diplomatic envoy from Turkey serving as a third-party intermediary seeking common grounds from both sides.

Khalid Ibn Khammas exclaimed the convene could be a turning point for Libya, declaring that the "restoration of the rightful government is finally at arms reach." His counterpart also expressed that, if successful, the conclusion of the convening could be the first step toward reunification of the warring country. France and Turkey, who expressed interest in supporting the LNA through Tobruk, also lauded the negotiation and its potential conclusion.

The convene has beneficial implications for both parties: Tobruk's secure port will provide the LNA with a consistent route for their supporting co-belligerents, enabling them to receive a flow of equipment and supplies, and Farkash will receive Turkish investment in their efforts to rebuild defunct facilities neglected since the civil war.

The convene will conclude between the 14th and 17th, per Farkash's statement concerning such a question.

Foreign Affairs
1 - CNN: Senator Horatio Jabarti to introduce bill to authorize military intervention against Libya


[Exceprt from CNN footage of Horatio Jabarti answering questions about the pending Libyan military intervention resolution]

Julia Klementz: “Did President McCallum encourage you to introduce the bill?” -- [04:13]

Horatio Jabarti: “No, he didn’t make any move on it. In fact, it was the opposite: I came to him to support the bill. We shared the same ideas on what should be done with— for Libya but were slightly iffy about the details. After a few talks, we ironed it out, and here we are.” -- [04:21]

Julia Klementz: “Do you believe the bill will pass?” -- [04:25]

Horatio Jabarti: “Maybe, maybe not. But in the end, we can tell who will be on the right and wrong side of history, that’s for sure.” -- [04:32]

Joseph McAfferty: “Would invading—” -- [04:35]

Horatio Jabarti: “Okay, let me stop you right there! First: We’re not invading; we’re intervening. Second: We’re doing this on behalf of Libya's government; the country hasn’t had a legitimate one for six or seven years from now. Calling it an invasion is misleading because we’re helping the Libyans to take their country back.” -- [04:43]

Julia Klementz: “Do you think the invasion will cause severe consequences similar to Iraq?” -- [04:49]

Horatio Jabarti: “No, because we want to intervene to stop the crisis as well. Sure, we can just ignore the slavery and piracy plaguing the whole country, but that’s not a thought of good conscience, is it?” -- [04:58]

2 - Hassan Tatanaki’s Letter to Zaim


January 2nd, 2027

Ministry of Agriculture and Public Water

Tripoli, Tripoli Province

Zaim,

One of my secretaries has received word from a group of U.N envoys; they made the effort of crossing through Tunisian borders to meet us at Abu Kammash. They represent the World Food Programme at the personal behest of General Secretary Helen Clark and Executive Director Bufford Timm to discuss the impending food shortage we’ve been struggling against since we took over Tripoli.

When our men apprehended them for further interrogation, they insisted on relaying their memorandum to us. Thus, I took the liberty of receiving it first to understand the matter, so here’s a summary of what they are proposing:

  • Provide food aid and financial support to famine-critical regions,

  • Consult water and agricultural development and management,

  • Assist local provinces to curb famines and food shortages,

  • Conduct research to prevent mass starvation and increase crop yieldings.


  • In return, we do not interfere with their operations; they are rather insistent on being capable of distributing it on their own. However, they need us to safeguard their staff and prevent food aid from being sold as goods; they cited their history in Yemen to suggest that some local smugglers and peddlers could exploit it for their ends.

    As much as your stubbornness would suggest otherwise, we need their help to fend off the impending starvation. It’s terrible enough we’re unable to produce our crops self-sufficiently, we cannot sustain ourselves with neighboring imports, and the warehouses are wearing thin. Thus, it’s a detriment to reject their aid when our people are cradling their stomachs in droves.

    They’re waiting for our response within the next 72 hours, so I suggest we hold an official conference to negotiate such a program.

    Hassan Tatanaki, Minister of Agriculture and Public Water

    3 - The Mediterranean: France-Turkey announced joint naval operation under the Ankara Accord


    Author: Alan Herver

    (January 10, 2027 - 10:37) -- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, accompanied by French President Emmanuel Macron during his state visit to Ankara, has announced the formation of a joint naval operation between France and Turkey under the Ankara Accord.

    “With the pirate crisis disrupting our people’s livelihood, we took the initiative to work together like the history of old.” Macron said in a speech, “With the formation of the accord, this would allow us to protect our country, enforce ocean-wide security, protect international trade, and inevitably, dismantle piracy once and for all.

    The joint mission is separate from Operation Maria, with its strategic objectives, operations, and command structure differing from their Brussels-based counterpart.

    When questioned about the purpose of the Ankara Accord, Erdogan explained the need for “an independent and flexible task force capable of supporting their country's national interest and those neighboring over the Mediterranean Sea, ones which possess the necessary logistics and capabilities to commit such mission adequately.”

    However, speculations have occurred since the Libyan National Army announced their diplomatic talks with the neighboring Tobruk Clique. Many observers speculate the formation of the security pact was to circumvent the deadlock concerning both countries and the belligerent participants of Operation Maria, especially regarding military support for the LNA.

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