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GrantExploit — World Climate 2071-2100 Estimate 3 km Resolution
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Published: 2019-03-07 02:23:55 +0000 UTC; Views: 1534; Favourites: 8; Downloads: 8
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Description
There's a little story behind these maps: While I was reading about North Macedonia on Wikipedia immediately after it officially adopted that name on 2019-02-12, I found that its "Climate" section contained a marvelous map much more detailed than the usual crap. After finding the source (this link for the article, this link for the data, also linked to here ), I discovered that they offered the detail of Adam Peterson/Redtitan 's current extrapolated regional climate maps while covering the entire world like the 0.5°-resolution maps found here and earlier uploaded by Vincent--L as Earth's climates at the end of the 20th century and Earth's climates at the end of the 21th century , along with his derivative works. Specifically, the source offered global climate maps at 0.5° (~60 km/pixel at the equator), 0.083° (~10 km/pixel at the equator), and a jaw-dropping 0.0083° (~1 km/pixel at the equator) resolution. Obviously, I downloaded them immediately, and as they are free to use with credit, I decided to post these on DeviantArt like Vincent--L did with the earlier 0.5°-resolution maps.
As Paint.net and Paint cannot load the latter two .tif files, I converted all of them to the .png format (seriously, why does .tif even exist?). Also, as Sta.sh and DeviantArt restricts you from uploading files of more than 200 megapixels, I am instead uploading the full maps in 0.5°, 0.083°, and 0.025° (~3 km/pixel at the equator) resolution, while uploading the 1 km/pixel resolution maps in 6 "pseudo-hemispheres" or "hexaspheres", which are called from west-to-east and north-to-south: New World, Heartland, Orient, Pacific, 2 Souths, and Downunder.
Here's a key for the map. In the case of these maps, a 0 °C average temperature in the coldest month is used as the dividing line between C and D-type climates, and an 18 °C annual average temperature is used as the dividing line between B[x]h and B[x]k climates.
As always, if you have any questions or comments, please say 'em.
Important: If you wish to use the information present on this or make any derivative works, please cite:
Beck, H.E., N.E. Zimmermann, T.R. McVicar, N. Vergopolan, A. Berg, E.F. Wood: Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution, Scientific Data 5:180214, doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.214 (2018).and @-mention or message me (and better yet, inform the authors) so that I can make sure this has been done!
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Comments: 9
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Apparently places such as south asia would be unable to sustain humans by 2100: time.com/4884648/climate-chang…
Does this mean that they would fall under a hyperthermal climate?
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Aye, HdBSh (Broad hyperthermal tropical and subtropical semi-arid) and HdAw (Broad hyperthermal tropical pronounced dry-season) climates. Only small areas, though, as you see from maps on similar articles. Though the Calidian scenario's climate and geography sufficiently diverges from our own that a linear approximation would be unwise, which is partly why I still haven't responded to your note.
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Wait, how are the climates of the Calidian so different that they can't align with our own?
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No, but their geographical distribution is quite foreign compared to any near-future scenario (in part because the geography itself is slightly different), therefore figuring out the distribution of hyperthermal climates is more difficult (especially as they would cover more area).
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IKR?
I do have some problems with the present maps of this set, most of which are described in this comment *, in addition to some for the future ones (though less of course, because they are naturally more speculative):
For instance, in this scenario, the Köppen classification may already be inadequate, as if you see hot-summer humid continental and subpolar continental climates directly bordering each other, indicating that there must be certain locations that both have fewer than 4 months of >10 °C averages and 1 month of >22 °C averages. They're lumped into subarctic in this map, but would they actually be so ecologically? Also, certain tiny areas around the Persian Gulf, etc. could already have Hd climates.
Also, the spread of warmer climates into the Antarctic seems not only a bit of an underestimate (It predicts only the Crozets and possibly Montagu Island will gain climates conducive to trees. That sounds low, but hey, I'm not a professional climatologist.), but also based on a different data set at least for certain areas. Seriously, compare the Antarctic Peninsula in the present map to the future map—in the former, tundra distribution is patchy, while in the latter it almost entirely depends on elevation, with some areas changing from tundra to ice cap!
*Others include that the concentration of tundra climates in non-peninsular Antarctica is slightly underestimated. For instance, both extrapolations from studies and direct observations reveal that the area around Lake Vanda in the McMurdo Dry Valleys has an ET climate.
Another related issue is more with the Köppen classification in general—the linear threshold it uses for determining aridity falls apart at extremely high and low temperatures. As an example, while it is possible for a climate that both has all months below 10 °C and fits the criteria for being arid or semi-arid (where the classification is unclear, but this map biases to B, which results in the random patches of arid and semi-arid in some polar regions) it really is a "when sun lines up just right" thing, not corresponding to the full areas of polar deserts (which should have their own B[x][T/F] classification). Most of the MDVs and the Eureka-Hazen-Peary area is considered a polar desert, but Köppen classifies them together with even the wettest tundras.
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I do have a question though;
How were these maps made? did you make them? Because I want to know how someone predicts the climates of the future all the way down to a few kilometers. and how much warmer are global temperatures at this point?
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Did you read the description that's shared for all of them? I assume all of that information can be gathered from it and/or its links.
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