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RvBOMally β 2016 Prediction
Published: 2016-11-09 05:26:36 +0000 UTC; Views: 2542; Favourites: 10; Downloads: 7
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I normally hate this sort of electoral map nonsense, but this was my prediction yesterday.ΒRelated content
Comments: 55
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I was wondering if you will make a 2018 (Congressional makeup)Β and 2020 prediction.
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When did you post this? Before election day?
Also, (you don't have to answer if you don't want to), who would you have voted for?
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I made this the day of, before polls closed.
I would have chosen not to vote, or maybe write in Harambe as a joke.
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i had just got back from reading how the Electoral College was originally a Benefit to Slave Owners and that it violates the one persons right to vote. so yeah its very Obsolete and needs to be Abolished and trump Truely did not win
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I have my issues with the Electoral College, but to say it was just to benefit slave owners is a crass oversimplification of the issue. It was, and is, intended to benefit rural areas of the country. If the President were elected with the popular vote alone, then all the candidates would need to do is pander to the largest cities in the country, damn the rest of it. That is not representative. The Electoral College system is intended to protect the interests of a minority. And no, it does not violate the principle of one person, one vote, because people in the voting booths still have one vote. They just happen to be voting for a slate of electors pledged to a candidate, not for the candidate directly. I do wish we could have a hybrid system, but throwing out the Electoral College system because you don't like the candidate who won is ridiculous. The rural areas of this country deserve and need a voice.Β
And yes, Trump did win. He won under the laws of the United States, which operates under the Electoral College system. If you do not like the Electoral College system, by all means, lobby your congressional representatives to propose a constitutional amendment changing the means by which the President of the United States is elected. Even if you succeed, Trump would still have won, because he won under the laws of the United States as they existed at the time. Claiming the Electoral College system is "illegitimate" because it was a "benefit to slave owners" does not change the fact that it is the law, and that Trump won under that law.Β
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 sign this while theres a chance www.change.org/p/electoral-col⦠;
spread the word
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I absolutely refuse to sign this. Not only does this encourage violation of faithless elector laws, it is disrespectful of the American electoral system that every presidential candidate has agreed to run under. The electoral college process is not some esoteric,
opaque system which prevents the citizenry from understanding how candidates are elected president. There were, and are, mechanisms in place to change this system, and it was not changed. By the laws of the United States of America, Donald Trump won the presidency. You may not like it, millions of other people do not like it, and they had their chance to be heard on November 8. If you suspect Donald Trump of rigging the election in his favor, as he has accused Clinton of doing, then make your case and report any evidence you have of this fraud to the proper authorities. This talk of "Trump's not my president" sounds just like the rhetoric coming from Republicans in 2008, and I'm not sure anyone appreciates that irony.
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yeesh i was only pointing out a possible solution, you see Trump is no way like any other us president ever been who has cheated and lied almost his whole life and continues to be that way, why didnt the american people ever pick Oprah Winfrey as President if theyre so tired of politics that in which case theyre better off with that insted of an almost complete criminal. not to mention that alot of Famous people had been taken part of this doing what right for everyone to give a better chance of being heard, you dont have to take part but im saying that would be a shame.
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First of all, Trump's lead with electoral votes would require scores of electors to break their pledge. Practically speaking, that is not going to happen. One or two electors may flip, but thirty? Not a chance. I don't want Hillary supporters to get a false sense of hope believing that this petition would actually achieve what it purports to.
Secondly, if Trump has "cheated and lied" his way to the presidency, then he is in violation of electoral law. If you have evidence that Trump won the election fraudulently, by doing something like bussing in voters, hacking voting machines, or other activities like that, then report it to the Federal Election Commission. There are mechanisms in place to deny people who have won elections fraudulently to be removed from office and criminally prosecuted. If Trump has committed any other crimes that disqualify him from the presidency, then he will be removed from office via impeachment. Again, the mechanisms are there.
And lastly, so what if a lot of "famous people" are taking part in it? Do you take your knowledge of the American election system from the likes of Katy Perry and Cher? I don't give their political acumen much stock. I do, however, give more stock to the opinion of President Obama and Hillary Clinton herself. President Obama has urged the people to accept the results of the election, and to respect the American electoral process. Hillary Clinton conceded the election to Trump. Those two people, although strongly opposed to Trump, were intelligent and mature enough to concede an election that Trump won by the electoral rules.Β
I'm strongly condemning this because it's not a "possible solution," and it's encouraging immature, vitriolic politics.Β Encouraging electors to break their pledge because of mere allegations is childish. The nature of elections is that one side will lose. Everybody knew this going in to the election. The idea that an election's results shouldn't be accepted, and the rules broken, because the candidate of choice won, destroys the entire point of democracy. If we aren't willing to abide by the rules we agree to, we might as well decide our leaders by force of arms.
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To be Honest, it is kind that Obama and Hillary are willing to help trump in being a better person but i still dont buy the fact that he could put a complete change all of his insecure Especial when i heard Obama mention that the Office doesnt change who you are but actually reveals who you are just as the Trump Rallys have Magnified how many americans were foolish enough to reveal their insecurities right in front Live TV.Β
aside from that we might as well leave consulting the thin skinned as a backup plan but at the same time even if it wasnt for all that Bigotry and scapegoatin, but still he would be an embarrassment to how it would represents the country as if it were the planet's Circus and have Fewer Tourists.
Β
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Well, you managed to predict this election closer than any professional pundit or "big data" diviner I know of. Some smugness is in order, methinks.
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Being better than garbage is not something to be smug about.
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I'm not a fan of electoral maps either but I will say that I thought Clinton would win the election given her reputation as a "granny goodness" in the eyes of many; well it seems I was wrong.
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In my personal life, I only know two people who actually liked Hillary Clinton as a candidate. Most of the people I know who ended up voting Hillary made a lesser of two evils decision. A great many of them actively disliked Hillary, but they simply disliked Trump more.
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Me, I only know one who wanted Clinton, most people I know wanted Trump simply because they distrust Clinton and I honestly don't blame them given what has been said about Clinton's corrupt antics.
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Seems we (Wisconsin) are getting some flak for being the last state to come in, for another 10 Trump points. Oh well, I'm just basking in the salt at my university and social circles. Not that I voted for Trump, but I find the End Times exaggerations to be amusing.
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That's absurd, but hey, electoral politics.Β
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Your quite accurate about how it turned out.
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Yeah, I'd do this more often, but I actually hate electoral politics. That's part of why I write about dictatorships all the time.Β
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Did you make any predictions regarding who would win the popular vote?
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I did think Trump would win the popular vote. I thought he'd win PA by much larger margins than he has.
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Yeah, I was shocked at how late in the night it took for Pennsylvania to flip red. I guess I underestimated Philadelphia.
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I called it for Trump about an hour before most news organizations did. I think they were simply in denial by that point. I get why they would be, but they needed to understand early on that this election is not like 2012 or 2008. I rolled my eyes every time they compared polling in one county to how it did back in 2012. That information is irrelevant.Β
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...Welp, somehow yesterday makes me kinda feel like Charlton Heston at the end of Planet of the Apes when he [48-year-old spoiler alert] finds the Statue of Liberty... I'm guessing that being right is little comfort (we may not have the same general political views but you usually strike me as too lucid and rational -and knowledgeable about history- to fall for the kind of base demagoguery that Trump uses).
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I'm not worried or concerned. The United States isn't an autocracy, and the President isn't some kind of emperor. Trump's power will be limited both by the political structure of the United States and massive opposition in both the political and media system that he will have to spend considerable political capital on any of his proposals (which I think he will spend on his immigration policy and "draining the swamp"). I've never cottoned to the idea that Trump is the next Hitler. I think that such comparisons are actually denigrating to the actual victims of Nazism, because the horrors of that political system are being trivialized by the comparison. Obama was Hitler, Bush was Hitler, everyone's Hitler these days. But even if he were the next Hitler, the current system is not suited for a takeover. If Trump tried to rule like a dictator, he'd be impeached. The system needs to be weakened by even greater chaos for that to happen, such as another depression that makes 2008 look like a walk in the park. And if that happened, it doesn't matter who's in the White House. Everybody suffers. If all Trump ends up doing is make people more skeptical of political power, which I suspect will happen, then that's a good thing. People should be less concerned about Donald Trump having a lot of political power, as much as they are that any one man can have that much power to begin with.Β
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Well, for all my massive dislike of the bloke, I myself never considered him a candidate for the next Hitler either (besides, saying that about any president or candidate nowadays is lazy Godwining IMO), but I still think he can do significant damage as both chambers of congress are Rep-controlled, which may smooth over a lot of policy-making due to sheer partisan voting. I still find it disheartening (though not surprising) that the first modern democracy (IIRC) would fall prey to reactionary nationalistic populism in the 3rd millenium. And since them being skeptical of political power in the first place was a significant element in his rise, I'd argue that it's not always a good thing (another consequence would be people deciding to stop voting, which many have already done).
Definitely agree on your stance on power though. Star Trek had it right.
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I never drank the "Trump=Hitler" kool-aid either, simply because I always knew that Trump is at least decent enough not to go to the extremes that Hitler took in regards to social policy (and neither would Pence in regards to the LGBT, at least right; if anything he would be like the George Wallace of gay rights). Yet I'm always bothered by how even historians, Jews, and folks like the Nostalgia Critic are going nuts with the idiotic comparisons simply because ofΒ Trump's arguably poorly thought out way of handling illegal immigrants and the Muslim population.
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The thing about actual neo-Nazis is that they are not shy. An actual racist would not be ashamed of being called a racist. They'd happily embrace that label. Using it as a broad form of demonization only serves to create actual racists, because people who would otherwise be decent adopt it because they just want to spite their opponents. I suspect the literally Hitler rhetoric only motivated Trump supporters more, because they wanted to see enemies who viewed them as Nazis freak out about it.
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Talk about backfiring.
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That feel when you wake up and realize you're in the opening paragraph of a RvBOMally Oneshot.
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Now for the important question: Do I retcon my timeline so that Trump wins instead of Clinton, or just roll with it?
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I say keep Clinton. I always assume my works, even those set in a then-possible future, are alternate history with an undefined PoD.Β
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That's surprisingly close to what actually happened! I know that after this election I wouldn't trust pollsters like Nate Silver with an Excel spreadsheet, let alone an election.Β
Funny you mentioned Michigan, I actually won a bet with a friend because he didn't believe me when I said that MI was going for Trump.Β
If you don't mind me asking... 1) Are you American? 2) If so, did you vote and who for?
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I never believed those polls or Nate Graphite, because they didn't account for the major paradigm shift occurring in the country. All of the enthusiasm was on his side. If you think about it, that's actually insane. I would have assumed, had Trump not run, that Clinton would get the enthusiasm by virtue of being possibly the next female president. She certainly would have had it had Jeb and his guac bowls secured the GOP nomination, although such an election would have seen record low turnout given the disgust most people would have with a race between two political dynasties. Trump destroyed that by turning the media's need for sensationalism against itself: he was such a fundamentally outrageous candidate that nobody from the political world could possibly top him. He was an entertainer, and he used that to his advantage to build a strong base of support. Combine that with his populist, anti-establishment message, and I'm not surprised at all that the swing states, save for those with large Mexican Hispanic populations, went in his direction. The Democrats also made the mistake of abandoning, or being perceived as abandoning, their traditional white, union working base. They instead pandered to the identity politics wing, which would be a viable strategy perhaps in the next election cycle or the one after that, but not in 2016. They jumped the gun, they took the Rust Belt for granted, and it cost them.Β
As for your questions, I'm not a citizen, but I do live in the United States. Before anybody asks, I am here legally as a permanent resident, so I'm not worried about anything happening to me.
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What you said makes sense when I think about it. I thought Trump had no chance because the mass amount of the population prefer the 'safety' Hillary gives. Even though she's a huge war hawk... On the other side, we have a semi-isolationist who can appeal to war-weary America. I'm not really pro-Trump, but I am anti-forced globalism. Call it selfish, but I really don't care what's happening in Ukraine. If we in the US and EU didn't get greedy,Β Yanukovych would've just done his thing and no one would've batted an eyelash, but no our medias had to exaggerate everything. Our bureaucrats had to turn it into a battlefield for a second Cold War. The worst part is the life of the average Ukrainian hasn't been improved. It's unlikely we'll let them into the EU, we're practically just playing and lying with many, many lives.
Ironically, Trump's victory might lead to a safer world. We'll see though. GOP won't let him sell out NATO even if he wanted to, which I doubt he does. The whole 'Trump is a Putin plant' narrative is ridiculous. Hopefully there can be a Russo-American agreement on Syria. If Assad wants to stick around, so be it. Again, he doesn't have the firepower of Nazi Germany so even if Assad was 'as literally Hitler as Trump/Putin' he's not getting past Turkey, ergo it doesn't even matter.
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Latinos, African-Americans, and women also voted and turned out quite a bit less than for 2012's Obama--both lower percentages and lower numbers; true to their form the Dems Whigs' inbred brother they keep in the attic is blaming AAs already (like they did for youth and gays in prior elections)
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"As for your questions, I'm not a citizen, but I do live in the United States. Before anybody asks, I am here legally as a permanent resident, so I'm not worried about anything happening to me."
Interesting! Where were you from originally? Have you thought about becoming a citizen?
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Australia. The plan is I'm going to be a citizen next year.Β
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Why would you? If you don't mind me asking? Don't have to answerΒ if you don't want too.
That's fine as well.
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Because I've lived here for over a decade, practically grew up here, plan to work here, and all of my friends are here. All of my ties are in the United States.
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I see... Well I wish you the best of luck and hope you become aΒ citizen.
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Alright, RvBOMally, which alternate timeline of your's did we end up in?
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Probably this one.Β rvbomally.deviantart.com/art/Tβ¦
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So what did you base this off of?
Cuase this is one of the more accurate predictions we haveΒ
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My assumptions were:Β
- Enthusiasm for Trump being greater than enthusiasm against him. Trump's core supporters are hardened, even fanatical. They will go out and vote. People hate Trump, but that is less likely to make people vote Clinton than liking Trump is to make them vote Trump. This anti-Trump vote would also be split towards third party candidates and write-ins for people like Sanders. So, more swing states go for him.
- Enough Bernie supporters and libertarians voting Johnson in New Hampshire to eat away at Clinton's numbers. I was wrong about this.Β
- Plenty of Trump voters are not accounted for in polling because they don't want to admit they are Trump voters, or because they are not registered for the GOP.Β
- Trump's message resonating more among the Rust Belt states, allowing him to break in to traditionally Democratic states. Hence, PA and MI going Trump. If MI went, I assumed WI would go too. I had both PA and MI flipping, but I thought that one of the two would flip.Β
- Higher Hispanic turnout makes Nevada and Colorado go blue, but it does not affect Florida because Hispanics there are still largely Cuban, and they do not have the same political concerns with Trump that Hispanics in more Mexican-heavy states do.Β
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Ok, good work
Perhaps you should apply for a job with pollsters, since they don't have any idea what they are doing hahaΒ
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