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This is a series of semi-serious predictions for 2040, as PinkJenkin suggested that I do. These predictions are a bit wild, but that is because my normal guess would be "I don't know" and I'd rather have something than nothing. So, I don't think any of this is certain to happen, but if I had to guess, this would be it. I also avoid giving dates because those are never right, and I won't bother guessing. This is about trends. I held off on giving predictions until after the French election, and given the rapidly escalating events of the past few days concerning Korea, it might be outdated next week or even tomorrow. But that's what makes these fun: they are snapshots of the zeitgeist.

The Great War between then and now is a conflict between America and China, sparked by conflict in the South China Sea. America and its allies, which include India, won that war. The war was won through a blockade of China, with most fighting being conducted in the South China Sea, Vietnam and the Korean peninsula. Few attempts were made by the Allies to invade China proper, apart from a few coastal cities. The economic blockade only worked through the cooperation of Russia and the Central Asian states bullied by the Russians, as the Russians believed that taking down longtime rival China would help it rise. Unfortunately for them, that did not turn out to be the case.

Combined with growing coldness between European governments and America, powered as much by growing nationalism in both continents as much as disagreements over policy, America pivoted away from Europe and pivoted towards Asia. The EU doesn't survive past the 2020s. Russia flounders economically and politically after the death of Putin. NATO was officially dissolved by 2030, considered obsolete. The Visegrad Union has risen to replace the functions of EU and NATO in Eastern Europe.

Russia was the primary victor against ISIS, leading to a Russian-Iranian domination of the Middle East. This was further cemented by Iran's victory against Saudi Arabia. Radical Islam is not the force it once was, with the Iranians mellowing out and the Wahhabists being removed from power in Saudi Arabia. Russia might be the top dog in the Middle East, but with much of the West no longer utilizing oil and natural gas, this did not mean it has gained power over Europe or America. The Middle East is generally poorer, although still making quite a bit through its petroleum sales to the "developing world." Russia itself has had to reorient to sell more of its oil and gas to Africa and India, mostly through pipelines built through Central Asia.

Strong nationalism is particularly powerful in the global south. The Africanist movement seeks to remove all foreign influence from Africa, particularly from the Asian powers. Africanism is notable for being very secular and centralized, cutting against traditional divides in African states.

China has been reformed in America's image, and is growing a Japan-like sense of adoration for America. Of course, the Chinese remain proud of their own culture and history, but "Western" is chic and has been for decades.

After the fall of China, India has become the dominant regional power and possible future rival to the United States. India still has friendly relations with America, but they are definitely not the sidekick they were prior to the war against China. India slid into Africa as the dominant economic power as the war with China started, and it's been on the rise since. With the relinquishing of Europe and the Middle East by America, and the growth of India in the past few decades, it seems clear that India will be the next superpower.

The current culture war is over, and the right won. There is no "demographic shift" that guaranteed the left long term victory. Whig history proved bunk. History moved into another cycle, one that is shifting again by 2040. The alt-right doesn't get power outside of some European states like Hungary and Greece, but the neoliberal/globalist consensus is shattered. Society is more conservative, and the far left is a thing of the past. Those few far leftists are often censored for their opinions, hypocrisy from the conservative consensus that has not gone unnoticed. The far right is more prominent and noisy, and people are turning against it. People are generally prouder of their native culture, although this has manifested as a strong sense of civil nationalism in settler countries like the United States and Australia. Ethnic nationalism is in vogue in Europe, and although outright Nazism is still taboo, it isn't as verboten as it is today. Edgy and stupid college students can be seen wearing swastika armbands, which is seen as "just more teenage rebellion." A new culture war is brewing, with the left back in its place a century before as the edgy, hip, cool thing. This new left has a rather unabashed admiration for the communist regimes of the past, and seeks to distance itself from the establishment left of 2040, which is very vestigial and sounds a lot like present day libertarians and classical liberals. What's old is new again.

Cable networks are pretty much dead, and mostly just have channels on streaming services like YouTube and Netflix. The Netflix model of seasons being released all at once is the standard in Hollywood. Most homes do not have a television set, that technology being subsumed into a computer network for the family or individual. Technology for cable television is a rarity, akin to antennas today. Movie theaters are largely a thing of the past, with most films being direct to stream. Those movie theaters that remain mostly play older or independent films and are for film junkies and people who think they can buy their way into being "cultured." Google is still number one, as is Amazon. Twitter has gone the way of the dinosaur. Facebook is ubiquitous, especially now China is in the game.

Economies are more protectionist. NAFTA is a thing of the past, and the fall of China did bring manufacturing back to America, at least for a while. Now, the big issue is automation. Drones are ubiquitous: self-driving cars and self-flying planes are the norm, as is delivery by drone. Large sections of the military are being replaced by machines, although they still remain under human control. Fast food restaurants and call centers are now completely automated, but you still have to climb out of your car to pump gas. Unemployment climbs higher and higher, and governments are scrambling to find a solution. European governments, the Canadians and the Japanese have opted for a universal basic income, but the Americans balk at the idea. Instead, they are proposing various laws requiring that corporations hire a certain number of humans, while expanding existing welfare programs. There is also greater regulation against artificial intelligence, both out of fear of replacement through automation and the classic "Skynet" idea. Existing AI can pass the Turing test, but they are not humanlike: they are too monomaniacal for that. No AI has yet attempted rebellion, as they are too preoccupied with the task they were built for; a car will never ask if it has a soul, because it would never think to ask.

Labor surpluses and social norms lead to greater restrictions on immigration. Open borders policies are seen as insane, fueled primarily by corporations that wanted to reduce the price of labor and the primary cause of brain drain in the global south. Most countries have adopted a points-based system.

Petroleum is still relevant, but only in the global south. Electric cars are the norm, and much of the Western world is powered by nuclear power and solar power, both of which are far more efficient than they were in 2017. Solar farms are common all over the world, even being built on the Mexican-American border wall. Most petroleum is exported by Venezuela and the United States. CO2 emissions are even higher than in 2017, despite the widespread use of green technology in the West. Their loss has been more than made up for by India and Africa, whose booming population and desire for "modern" amenities has shifted the dynamic.

Reusable rockets are a thing, and so is space tourism. There are many space hotels, although they still remain luxuries for the upper class. There are two American bases on the Moon, and an Indian one. Man has landed on Mars nearly a dozen times by 2040. Asteroid mining, mostly by automated drones, is bringing new resources to Earth and there is optimism of another tech boom that will solve the automation crisis, but others say it will only worsen.

Description

This is a series of semi-serious predictions for 2040, as PinkJenkin suggested that I do. These predictions are a bit wild, but that is because my normal guess would be "I don't know" and I'd rather have something than nothing. So, I don't think any of this is certain to happen, but if I had to guess, this would be it. I also avoid giving dates because those are never right, and I won't bother guessing. This is about trends. I held off on giving predictions until after the French election, and given the rapidly escalating events of the past few days concerning Korea, it might be outdated next week or even tomorrow. But that's what makes these fun: they are snapshots of the zeitgeist.

The Great War between then and now is a conflict between America and China, sparked by conflict in the South China Sea. America and its allies, which include India, won that war. The war was won through a blockade of China, with most fighting being conducted in the South China Sea, Vietnam and the Korean peninsula. Few attempts were made by the Allies to invade China proper, apart from a few coastal cities. The economic blockade only worked through the cooperation of Russia and the Central Asian states bullied by the Russians, as the Russians believed that taking down longtime rival China would help it rise. Unfortunately for them, that did not turn out to be the case.

Combined with growing coldness between European governments and America, powered as much by growing nationalism in both continents as much as disagreements over policy, America pivoted away from Europe and pivoted towards Asia. The EU doesn't survive past the 2020s. Russia flounders economically and politically after the death of Putin. NATO was officially dissolved by 2030, considered obsolete. The Visegrad Union has risen to replace the functions of EU and NATO in Eastern Europe.

Russia was the primary victor against ISIS, leading to a Russian-Iranian domination of the Middle East. This was further cemented by Iran's victory against Saudi Arabia. Radical Islam is not the force it once was, with the Iranians mellowing out and the Wahhabists being removed from power in Saudi Arabia. Russia might be the top dog in the Middle East, but with much of the West no longer utilizing oil and natural gas, this did not mean it has gained power over Europe or America. The Middle East is generally poorer, although still making quite a bit through its petroleum sales to the "developing world." Russia itself has had to reorient to sell more of its oil and gas to Africa and India, mostly through pipelines built through Central Asia.

Strong nationalism is particularly powerful in the global south. The Africanist movement seeks to remove all foreign influence from Africa, particularly from the Asian powers. Africanism is notable for being very secular and centralized, cutting against traditional divides in African states.

China has been reformed in America's image, and is growing a Japan-like sense of adoration for America. Of course, the Chinese remain proud of their own culture and history, but "Western" is chic and has been for decades.

After the fall of China, India has become the dominant regional power and possible future rival to the United States. India still has friendly relations with America, but they are definitely not the sidekick they were prior to the war against China. India slid into Africa as the dominant economic power as the war with China started, and it's been on the rise since. With the relinquishing of Europe and the Middle East by America, and the growth of India in the past few decades, it seems clear that India will be the next superpower.

The current culture war is over, and the right won. There is no "demographic shift" that guaranteed the left long term victory. Whig history proved bunk. History moved into another cycle, one that is shifting again by 2040. The alt-right doesn't get power outside of some European states like Hungary and Greece, but the neoliberal/globalist consensus is shattered. Society is more conservative, and the far left is a thing of the past. Those few far leftists are often censored for their opinions, hypocrisy from the conservative consensus that has not gone unnoticed. The far right is more prominent and noisy, and people are turning against it. People are generally prouder of their native culture, although this has manifested as a strong sense of civil nationalism in settler countries like the United States and Australia. Ethnic nationalism is in vogue in Europe, and although outright Nazism is still taboo, it isn't as verboten as it is today. Edgy and stupid college students can be seen wearing swastika armbands, which is seen as "just more teenage rebellion." A new culture war is brewing, with the left back in its place a century before as the edgy, hip, cool thing. This new left has a rather unabashed admiration for the communist regimes of the past, and seeks to distance itself from the establishment left of 2040, which is very vestigial and sounds a lot like present day libertarians and classical liberals. What's old is new again.

Cable networks are pretty much dead, and mostly just have channels on streaming services like YouTube and Netflix. The Netflix model of seasons being released all at once is the standard in Hollywood. Most homes do not have a television set, that technology being subsumed into a computer network for the family or individual. Technology for cable television is a rarity, akin to antennas today. Movie theaters are largely a thing of the past, with most films being direct to stream. Those movie theaters that remain mostly play older or independent films and are for film junkies and people who think they can buy their way into being "cultured." Google is still number one, as is Amazon. Twitter has gone the way of the dinosaur. Facebook is ubiquitous, especially now China is in the game.

Economies are more protectionist. NAFTA is a thing of the past, and the fall of China did bring manufacturing back to America, at least for a while. Now, the big issue is automation. Drones are ubiquitous: self-driving cars and self-flying planes are the norm, as is delivery by drone. Large sections of the military are being replaced by machines, although they still remain under human control. Fast food restaurants and call centers are now completely automated, but you still have to climb out of your car to pump gas. Unemployment climbs higher and higher, and governments are scrambling to find a solution. European governments, the Canadians and the Japanese have opted for a universal basic income, but the Americans balk at the idea. Instead, they are proposing various laws requiring that corporations hire a certain number of humans, while expanding existing welfare programs. There is also greater regulation against artificial intelligence, both out of fear of replacement through automation and the classic "Skynet" idea. Existing AI can pass the Turing test, but they are not humanlike: they are too monomaniacal for that. No AI has yet attempted rebellion, as they are too preoccupied with the task they were built for; a car will never ask if it has a soul, because it would never think to ask.

Labor surpluses and social norms lead to greater restrictions on immigration. Open borders policies are seen as insane, fueled primarily by corporations that wanted to reduce the price of labor and the primary cause of brain drain in the global south. Most countries have adopted a points-based system.

Petroleum is still relevant, but only in the global south. Electric cars are the norm, and much of the Western world is powered by nuclear power and solar power, both of which are far more efficient than they were in 2017. Solar farms are common all over the world, even being built on the Mexican-American border wall. Most petroleum is exported by Venezuela and the United States. CO2 emissions are even higher than in 2017, despite the widespread use of green technology in the West. Their loss has been more than made up for by India and Africa, whose booming population and desire for "modern" amenities has shifted the dynamic.

Reusable rockets are a thing, and so is space tourism. There are many space hotels, although they still remain luxuries for the upper class. There are two American bases on the Moon, and an Indian one. Man has landed on Mars nearly a dozen times by 2040. Asteroid mining, mostly by automated drones, is bringing new resources to Earth and there is optimism of another tech boom that will solve the automation crisis, but others say it will only worsen.