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umneem — Base Rate Neglect
Published: 2014-01-09 16:54:53 +0000 UTC; Views: 2488; Favourites: 18; Downloads: 10
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Base rate neglect and in addition, using the single example leads to the incorrect conclusions. And we don't even need to use Bayes formula to make the information more exact here. Existing statistical data can be used.<< Previous issue
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== The first issue ==
Русская версия доступна тут: umneem.org/mrp/4
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Comments: 12
1: a) "That's a fancy cape you're wearing, isn't it? Is it a new trend in the capital?"
b) "Sweetie Belle, I'll explain later why we should expect a brother and not a sister."
c) "But didn't you tell me we'd be more likely to have a sister than a brother?"
2: a) "Please excuse my sister, we're discussing a possible addition to the family. My name is Rarity, how can I help you?"
b) "My name is Dispersion, I may need to replenish my wardrobe soon."
c) "If it's not a secret, can I ask what you're arguing about?"
d) "I just tried to explain to her that my friend's family has two sisters and one brother. Therefore we're also likely to have a brother."
3: a) "Don't count on a single example, especially when we have statistical data. I've recently seen data on birth rates countrywide and 65% of newborns are fillies and 35% are colts."
b) "You don't say..."
c) "External factors hardly influence gender, so you should consider a prior probability which is equal to 65% of having a little sister and 35% of having a little brother."
4: a) "So it's roughly two to one odds of having a sister, independently of a family."
b) "And we have two sisters, so the third will be a brother if it's two to one odds right?"
c) "Hm... No. It looks like Rarity is good at understanding odds so I'll let her explain to you the connection between probabilities and odds one day..."
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@ anyone reading: if you think the above isn't ideal English or keeps with the original language feel free to use it as a base to improve. Translating's often a community effort to get the best results
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Thank you. I would use your version, it's much better than the current one.
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A manifestation of some cognitive biases.
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