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Description
My official prediction for the 2020 United States Presidential Election. People have repeatedly asked me for this. I've held off on this for a while because the events of the past year have caused major changes regularly, but I think at this point I can make a prediction.

My prediction does anticipate a Trump victory, with a result close to the 2016 Presidential Election (my prediction for that here ). I anticipate that Trump will retain the states he won in 2016, with some exceptions, more from inertia and incumbent advantage. As chaotic as this year has been, his base in 2016 is still highly motivated to vote for him. On the Democratic side, most votes would be against Trump rather than for Biden. And while that camp is also motivated to vote against Trump, these votes will be highly concentrated in areas which are already in the Democratic camp. Further, wanting to vote against someone isn't as powerful a motivator as wanting to vote for someone. The enthusiasm favors Trump.

On the states which flipped, I think that demographic changes in Arizona favors the Democrats, and the 2018 midterm results bear that out. Minnesota saw Republican gains in 2018, and civil unrest in the area will favor the Republicans.

I do predict that the results following November 3 will favor Trump far more than this map shows, and he will lose this lead as more mail-in ballots are counted. I do anticipate legal challenges to the result, as both camps have already laid the foundation for an argument for why their candidate "really" won. The sheer logistical challenge of counting that many mail-in ballots will lead to it.

I'll leave the comments open, but keep it civil. I will close it if necessary.

FAQ

Q: What about the polls?
A: Most polls are measuring national approval/disapproval, which is irrelevant to the American electoral system because what matters is winning states. The polls do favor Biden in swing states, but I think that the phenomenon of the "shy Trump voter," flaws with questioning and methodology (asking if someone prefers Trump or Biden, rather than asking if they will go out to vote for Biden or Trump), and the inherent imperfection in

Q: Is this the result you want?
A: I don't care who wins. I dislike both candidates.

Q: Who are you voting for?
A: Writing in a joke candidate, if I even bother.

Q: Can I change your mind on that?
A: No, and don't bother trying.

Q: What about [INSERT ISSUE HERE]?
A: Let's not pretend this is an issue election. The vast majority of people don't care about policy, they care about personality. Almost all issue-based voters made up their minds long ago, and will not be swayed.

Q: What about [INSERT SCANDAL HERE]?
A: Can you remember all the scandals? I can't. People are exhausted by this.

Q: What is your opinion on [INSERT ISSUE/SCANDAL HERE]?
A: I'm not the one running for office. I'm not answering those questions.

Q: How sure are you that this will be the result?
A: If I could actually predict the future, I would be much richer than I am. This is a somewhat-educated guess.

Description
My official prediction for the 2020 United States Presidential Election. People have repeatedly asked me for this. I've held off on this for a while because the events of the past year have caused major changes regularly, but I think at this point I can make a prediction.

My prediction does anticipate a Trump victory, with a result close to the 2016 Presidential Election (my prediction for that here ). I anticipate that Trump will retain the states he won in 2016, with some exceptions, more from inertia and incumbent advantage. As chaotic as this year has been, his base in 2016 is still highly motivated to vote for him. On the Democratic side, most votes would be against Trump rather than for Biden. And while that camp is also motivated to vote against Trump, these votes will be highly concentrated in areas which are already in the Democratic camp. Further, wanting to vote against someone isn't as powerful a motivator as wanting to vote for someone. The enthusiasm favors Trump.

On the states which flipped, I think that demographic changes in Arizona favors the Democrats, and the 2018 midterm results bear that out. Minnesota saw Republican gains in 2018, and civil unrest in the area will favor the Republicans.

I do predict that the results following November 3 will favor Trump far more than this map shows, and he will lose this lead as more mail-in ballots are counted. I do anticipate legal challenges to the result, as both camps have already laid the foundation for an argument for why their candidate "really" won. The sheer logistical challenge of counting that many mail-in ballots will lead to it.

I'll leave the comments open, but keep it civil. I will close it if necessary.

FAQ

Q: What about the polls?
A: Most polls are measuring national approval/disapproval, which is irrelevant to the American electoral system because what matters is winning states. The polls do favor Biden in swing states, but I think that the phenomenon of the "shy Trump voter," flaws with questioning and methodology (asking if someone prefers Trump or Biden, rather than asking if they will go out to vote for Biden or Trump), and the inherent imperfection in

Q: Is this the result you want?
A: I don't care who wins. I dislike both candidates.

Q: Who are you voting for?
A: Writing in a joke candidate, if I even bother.

Q: Can I change your mind on that?
A: No, and don't bother trying.

Q: What about [INSERT ISSUE HERE]?
A: Let's not pretend this is an issue election. The vast majority of people don't care about policy, they care about personality. Almost all issue-based voters made up their minds long ago, and will not be swayed.

Q: What about [INSERT SCANDAL HERE]?
A: Can you remember all the scandals? I can't. People are exhausted by this.

Q: What is your opinion on [INSERT ISSUE/SCANDAL HERE]?
A: I'm not the one running for office. I'm not answering those questions.

Q: How sure are you that this will be the result?
A: If I could actually predict the future, I would be much richer than I am. This is a somewhat-educated guess.