SkunkyArt | RvBOMally — The Dragon in the Mountains

The PoD is better coordination between American intelligence agencies managing to catch the 9/11 plotters in time. This butterflies away the entire American War on Terror.

The Taliban turns its attention to growing unrest in Xinjiang, and practically take over the separatist movement there. Their great attack is a major bombing in Beijing during a parade, which kills many hundreds of people, along with smaller attacks throughout the country, in 2005. Rather boldly, the Taliban claim credit for this, and the Chinese invade Afghanistan as a result. They also get involved in crushing Islamism everywhere in the world.

Rather ironically, the Americans do not see radical Islam as great of a threat as a rising China, and covertly move against the Chinese. An official Pacific alliance is formed at the request of the Japanese, who are afraid of a more international China. Russia is also brought closer to the West, because Putin fears the Chinese dragon more.

China's war in Afghanistan and its wars elsewhere become quagmires, limiting Chinese economic growth but encouraging the CCP to keep growing the military. On the other hand, the West is doing far better than OTL, with little worried about terrorism, and with an economy that didn't dip so much when the housing bubble collapsed in 2009. The Americans are focused on containing China, which has led to some uncomfortable partnerships with radical Islam, mostly via the Saudis and Pakistan.

Iran collapsed after a 2009 revolt led to a civil war, which Saddam Hussein took full advantage of. Now loyalists of the regime have formed their own de facto Islamic republic in the south of Iran, and are fighting a winning battle against the secular government in Tehran and their Iraqi masters.

The EU is far more integrated, and they are suffering from fewer refugee issues. The Greek economy hasn't completely tanked yet, but it's close.

There is no BRICS equivalent, although India and Brazil are going their own way, and Russia is slowly moving away from the "friendship" it has with America.