HOME | DD

Description
I know, extremely premature, but the 2016 election and Trump's polling numbers are worth discussing, because no one seems to be looking at how he's doing state by state, or just how inside out the map was due to spoiler candidates. So this is less a prediction as I'm writing this right now in October 2017, and more of an excercise in deconstructing the results of the 2016 election by looking at how they could impact the 2020 election. As well as one truly crazy scenario that I wish I was optimistic enough to make up.

---Republican Spoiler---
Basically, what if every state that Trump won, but didn't actually win a majority of their popular vote went to the Democratic nominee in 2020? In this scenario the Democrats nominate a Corey Booker/Sherrod Brown ticket after a fairly polite primary. The Democrats are united, but Trump and/or Pence is detested by his own party. The resignation of Tillerson, Mattis, and Mnuchin, as well as the scandalous (but not necessary illegal) revelations about the 2016 election and their defeats in the Midterms has left many Republicans disgusted with their nominee, and many flock to the independent ticket of Ben Sasse and Jeff Flake.

-Results-
Democrat: 353
Republican: 185

---Repeat of 2016---
The Economy recovers just barely by election day, the Russia scandal is behind the President after the Midterms, and the party's defectors are in states Trump can't possibly lose. Democrats splinter after a more or less average primary when Progressive Democrats break ranks along with Libertarian Republicans. A boring, divisive candidate does little to help the Dems in the midwest, and Donald Trump narrowly wins a second term exactly as he did the first.

-Results-
Democrat: 232
Republican: 306

---Democrats/Republicans by a Hair---
The scenario I gamed out in a panic actually a month before the election in 2016: The race is decided in Pennsylvania. Democrats gain ground in the Midwest, but Trump is able to fight off a serious primary challenger. The Russia investigation is so ambiguous that most people are just disappointed, but the economy still hasn't fully recovered from the last recession. Both parties dump truckloads of money into Pennsylvania, and the state becomes the focus of the entire election. Whoever wins here, wins the race for the White House.

-Results-
Democrat: 279/259
Republican: 259/279

---Democratic Spoiler---
Basically, what if every state that Clinton won, but didn't actually win a majority of their popular vote went to the Republican nominee in 2020? 3 years on and the Russia investigation hasn't turned up anything incriminating and the President has led the economy to recovery thanks in part to several democrats who broke ranks to vote for infrastructure and health care programs that were actually fairly popular after the Republicans held both houses in 2018. Democrats start blaming each-other for the string of losses and Bernie Sanders forms a splinter group within the party to challenge the party's nominee. Trump sails to a second term, now with a mandate.

-Results-
Democrat: 187
Republican: 351

---Current Polling Data FiveThirtyEight)---
fivethirtyeight.com/features/t…

I knew Trump was loosing ground, I just had no idea how much. Now Nate Silver lost a lot of points from me after he (and every other polster) so completely botched the results of the 2016 election, but let's assume they've worked the bugs out and state-by-state polling data is accurate. If that's the case, then if the election were today the Republicans would lose by the Biggest margin since Bob Dole in 1996. So for this scenario its the dream: Joe Biden runs and wins the Democratic nomination without a sweat. He faces a Sanders Democrat and a few Neo-Liberals in the primary but brushes them off after the Iowa Caucuses. By Super Tuesday he's essentially running unopposed for the nomination. Despite his 77 years of age, Biden is energetic, focused, and just as charming as ever. President Pence is little more than a sacrificial lamb, desperately trying to re-energize the Republican party with an appeal to the religious right, but the devoutly catholic Biden largely saps this effort. With an endorsement from the more-popular-in-retirement President Obama, Joe Biden wins the Presidency by a healthy margin.

-Results-
Clinton: 433
Trump: 105

Description
I know, extremely premature, but the 2016 election and Trump's polling numbers are worth discussing, because no one seems to be looking at how he's doing state by state, or just how inside out the map was due to spoiler candidates. So this is less a prediction as I'm writing this right now in October 2017, and more of an excercise in deconstructing the results of the 2016 election by looking at how they could impact the 2020 election. As well as one truly crazy scenario that I wish I was optimistic enough to make up.

---Republican Spoiler---
Basically, what if every state that Trump won, but didn't actually win a majority of their popular vote went to the Democratic nominee in 2020? In this scenario the Democrats nominate a Corey Booker/Sherrod Brown ticket after a fairly polite primary. The Democrats are united, but Trump and/or Pence is detested by his own party. The resignation of Tillerson, Mattis, and Mnuchin, as well as the scandalous (but not necessary illegal) revelations about the 2016 election and their defeats in the Midterms has left many Republicans disgusted with their nominee, and many flock to the independent ticket of Ben Sasse and Jeff Flake.

-Results-
Democrat: 353
Republican: 185

---Repeat of 2016---
The Economy recovers just barely by election day, the Russia scandal is behind the President after the Midterms, and the party's defectors are in states Trump can't possibly lose. Democrats splinter after a more or less average primary when Progressive Democrats break ranks along with Libertarian Republicans. A boring, divisive candidate does little to help the Dems in the midwest, and Donald Trump narrowly wins a second term exactly as he did the first.

-Results-
Democrat: 232
Republican: 306

---Democrats/Republicans by a Hair---
The scenario I gamed out in a panic actually a month before the election in 2016: The race is decided in Pennsylvania. Democrats gain ground in the Midwest, but Trump is able to fight off a serious primary challenger. The Russia investigation is so ambiguous that most people are just disappointed, but the economy still hasn't fully recovered from the last recession. Both parties dump truckloads of money into Pennsylvania, and the state becomes the focus of the entire election. Whoever wins here, wins the race for the White House.

-Results-
Democrat: 279/259
Republican: 259/279

---Democratic Spoiler---
Basically, what if every state that Clinton won, but didn't actually win a majority of their popular vote went to the Republican nominee in 2020? 3 years on and the Russia investigation hasn't turned up anything incriminating and the President has led the economy to recovery thanks in part to several democrats who broke ranks to vote for infrastructure and health care programs that were actually fairly popular after the Republicans held both houses in 2018. Democrats start blaming each-other for the string of losses and Bernie Sanders forms a splinter group within the party to challenge the party's nominee. Trump sails to a second term, now with a mandate.

-Results-
Democrat: 187
Republican: 351

---Current Polling Data FiveThirtyEight)---
fivethirtyeight.com/features/t…

I knew Trump was loosing ground, I just had no idea how much. Now Nate Silver lost a lot of points from me after he (and every other polster) so completely botched the results of the 2016 election, but let's assume they've worked the bugs out and state-by-state polling data is accurate. If that's the case, then if the election were today the Republicans would lose by the Biggest margin since Bob Dole in 1996. So for this scenario its the dream: Joe Biden runs and wins the Democratic nomination without a sweat. He faces a Sanders Democrat and a few Neo-Liberals in the primary but brushes them off after the Iowa Caucuses. By Super Tuesday he's essentially running unopposed for the nomination. Despite his 77 years of age, Biden is energetic, focused, and just as charming as ever. President Pence is little more than a sacrificial lamb, desperately trying to re-energize the Republican party with an appeal to the religious right, but the devoutly catholic Biden largely saps this effort. With an endorsement from the more-popular-in-retirement President Obama, Joe Biden wins the Presidency by a healthy margin.

-Results-
Clinton: 433
Trump: 105